It will now start to happen pretty quickly in the Conservative Party leadership campaign. Conservative I spoke with on Monday did not attach a literal meaning Lisa Raitt’s statement Friday that potential candidates only 10 days to make up their minds. (That figure will now be down to seven if the real number.) But the winner will be announced on June 27, and as one person put it to me, members of the Press Gallery when various kinds of writing how-the-pemenang- articles won in June, we all find that a winner has a serious organization in place in January. Which is now. So, things will now start to happen fairly quickly.
The race was, by far, is substantially formed by two people who are currently not in it: Rona Ambrose and Justin Trudeau. Ambrose, who shines as interim leader between 2015 defeat Stephen Harper and Andrew Scheer squeaker win the leadership election, 2017, will be the favorite conjecture if he ran. If he prepares to throw his hat, maybe a white-edged Calgary Stetson, he became a good race to discipline message: I’ve heard nothing to suggest he would swap his quiet personal life to return to politics. But he has not said he would not. So we wait.
Justin Trudeau raises the stakes in the whole exercise, as he spent 2019 showed he was not invincible. The assumption in 2017 was that Trudeau was prime minister of the two-the majority, if not more. In 2017, the Liberals cut minorities and take 26 seats going to sound pretty good. Now that it’s happened, Conservative greedy. Which helps explain why Scheer just rushed to the exit.
This also extends the opportunity for a candidate like Erin O’Toole, Mike Chong, even Pierre Poilievre MPs who’ve been around forever and looks a little bit like an emergency replacement for Andrew Scheers. O’Toole and Chong and maybe even Poilievre will appear for the Pride parade and will be difficult to attack from Scheer is on reproductive choice, although the Liberal definitely going to do it. And if social conservatism Scheer’s only drawback is, it will be all the successor would need. But there is also a deficit of gravity, and even the Conservatives are kindly disposed toward O’Toole wondering if he is the kind of leader you choose if you wish to actually win the next election.
Anyone who has a severe type of throws? Peter MacKay, in theory. Jean Charest. It would be strange if they ran against each other-Charest MacKay recruited to run for the Progressive Conservatives when Charest was leader-but it’s a long time. Conservatives who talked to Charest said he sounded very possible to actually run. It amazes me. Some of the rock-ribbed Alberta Conservatives have essentially one criterion-that the next leader does not come from Quebec-and many wondered whether the coalition of post-Harper Conservatives, a mixture of the Reformation old and current Progressive Conservative, can long endure with leaders who started as a Progressive conservative and end, the last anyone checked, as a Liberal. Also, one whose government has been the object of many, many police investigations. “It turns out the Conservatives know more about the Charbonneau Commission than I ever thought,” one of my sources says.
Conservative head very quickly, then, to the big question: what kind of party they want? This is true throughout all clear axis-east / west, progressive / reform, rural/urban, Pride attending / not present, the carbon tax / non-tax-and perhaps along some of which do not come to mind yet: fun/jerk, for example. I speak, of course, of Pierre Poilievre. Of course, the Conservative finance critic makes Liberals angry, but he is not universally popular among both Conservatives. That she was gentle and thoughtful he did not personally a little better, because he’s just about once a pit bull in public. He would be a formidable candidate if, as it seems, he walked. And he might try a personality transplant, on the theory that prior public persona is carefully constructed artefacts and can be easily swapped out for new ones.
Long story short: the Conservatives did not have an easy option, and there are no candidates guarantee of success or even party unity. As some of us tried to warn them when they are busy making Scheer walk the plank. I guess it does not help to remind them of it now. Still kind of satisfying, though.
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