Exercising its right under the Canada-Quebec Accord is in the province’s economic interests
To maintain a strong economy, Quebec needs almost twice as many immigrants as it is currently targeting.
In recent years, the second largest province in Canada has been welcoming about 50,000 immigrants per year, ranking second behind Ontario.
On a per-capita basis, however, the intake of newcomers in Quebec ranked sixth among the provinces and territories of Canada.
The provincial decision last year to reduce their intake to a maximum of 41,800 new entrants in 2019 under the auspices of trying to improve the integration of newcomers means that Quebec has fallen even further behind.
This policy is not the right time.
Growing majority of Canadians reject idea that Canada accepts too many immigrants
Quebec is aging faster than the national average
As a recent Conference Board of Canada study showed, Quebec aging faster than the national average and low birth rate.
Demographic reality can hurt the quality of life of Quebecers because they will hamper economic growth and tax revenues needed to fund social services Quebecers enjoy such as health care, education, and subsidized childcare.
Estimated study Quebec will have more deaths than births in 2028. It is not expected to occur at the national level until 2034, which means that Quebec must identify how to grow the population with a greater sense of urgency than most other provinces and territories.
Immigration is the most realistic solution to fuel population growth. Efforts to promote higher birth rates in western countries have not shown much success and Quebec is proof of this. Although universal daycare programs, Quebec’s birth rate remains low as the national average.
As a result, the Conference Board of Canada study projects that 100 percent of the Quebec population growth will come through immigration by 2023 (compared to 2034 at the national level).
Lower levels may hurt Quebec’s attractiveness to business
Last week, the province announced that it would increase the 2020 target for a maximum of 44,500 immigration of newcomers, and able to return immigration to 50,000 thresholds in 2022.
But this level is still too low given the demographics of the province. If a sustained level of immigration between now and 2040, the economy will only grow by about 1.4 percent per year in real terms compared with the average Canadian is expected to 1.9 percent.
Quebec targets low immigration will slow population growth now – and it could have negative economic consequences.
For example, businesses can choose to invest in other provinces with strong population growth because the jurisdictions will have more workers available to produce and consume goods and services. Why invest in the province with a weak population and economic growth while others such as neighboring Ontario will enjoy a higher level of growth thanks in part to immigration?
Why Quebec needs 80,000 newcomers annually
Quebec’s economic growth will strengthen to an average of 1.7 percent over the next two decades if welcoming a proportional share of the newcomers, such as qualified to perform under the Canada-Quebec Accord. The federal-provincial agreement allows Quebec to recognizes the percentage share of immigrants in proportion to the demographic weight in Canada.
Given the size of the current population of Quebec, this means we can welcome at least 23 percent of Canadian immigrants each year or about 75,000 newcomers.
If Canada continues to increase immigration levels, and if Quebec does prerogatives under the Accord, the province will be on track to welcome more than 80,000 new entrants annually moving forward.
This number may sound high, but on a per capita basis, most provinces already welcomed this level of immigration today.
Economic integration is improving
Although Quebec’s decision to reduce the rate based on the premise improve the social and economic integration of newcomers, Statistics Canada data showing that economic integration in the province has increased in recent years.
Immigrant participation and employment levels, as well as their wages, have gone up, while their unemployment rate has gone down.
demographic challenges Quebec should help to further positive developments. Labor shortages in the province are likely to benefit both Canadian-born and immigrant workers.
In addition, various reforms made by Quebec over the years such as the introduction of online expression Arrima rate system will likely produce a positive result of economic integration continues.
Each province pursues policies that it really believes in the best interests of promoting a higher standard of living for its citizens. Given the rapidly aging population and low birth rate, Quebec will serve the best interests of its citizens using their rights under the Canada-Quebec Accord for immigrants accepted in the intake level that matches his provincial counterparts.
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