Health officials in Canada’s most populous province say extreme measures have probably prevented the far higher death toll
Health officials in Ontario have warned that as many as 15,000 will die of the coronavirus in Canada’s most populous province in the coming months, but said extreme measures were already in place may have saved more lives.
The province coronavirus projections released on Friday, which is preparing for a surge of cases that could overwhelm the already strained health system of the province.
“These numbers are striking, and they are serious,” said the prime minister, Doug Ford. “But this forecast projections. And they can be changed by your actions and the actions of the government. “
In recent weeks, Ontario, like all provinces, has closed non-essential businesses, schools, public spaces and parks to blunt the spread of the coronavirus. But the number of cases continues to grow at a rate that worries public health officials.
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Health experts say as many as 100,000 residents of the province of Ontario could die during a pandemic has been the province did not take the initial steps. A total of 6,000 people will have in April alone.
With these current measures – including limiting public meetings and ask people to stay at home – officials hope to keep the total death toll between 3,000 to 15,000 during a pandemic, which they say could last for two years.
Officials expect as many as 80,000 people will be infected in April with 1,600 deaths.
“Where we end up depends on us all … I appreciate, for many people, this is a staggering number,” said Dr Peter Donnelly, the head of public health in Ontario is currently a technical briefing before Ford statement. “It’s really, times really unprecedented.”
On Friday, Ontario has recorded 3,255 cases and 67 deaths coronavirus. Of those, 20 came from a single retirement home in the town of Bobcaygeon, north of Toronto.
The number of those infected in the province might be much higher than the numbers recorded, warn experts, and the province needs to do much more testing to get an accurate picture of the spread of the virus.
Ford calls for greater transparency in the modeling and projections come as the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, citing a need for more and better data before the government can release the national projection.
“People wonder how much longer this will last,” Trudeau said Friday. “We need a better understanding of the accuracy of the projection data before we put out there.”
Donald Trump guiding projections released at the White House last week shows the decision making as many as 240,000 Americans could die with pubic health measures currently in place.
Toronto, the Canadian city most populous, is likely to keep the worst damage in the country by sheer volume, said officials. Given the potential for loss of life to the city, city staff has grown increasingly frustrated as citizens flout the call to stay at home and keep a physical distance in public.
“Lives potentially at stake and we will turn up the heat,” said Mayor John Tory on Thursday, announced a “blitz” in the steps of law enforcement that will see residents face fines of up to C $ 5,000 (the US $ 3,500) for failing to maintain a two-meter of physical distance in a public space. “We will continue to do everything we can as a municipality to lock the city to save lives.”
While Ontario is the first to release a projection with hard numbers, British Columbia released a model of last week, provides an estimate of the anticipated need for ventilator and ICU beds in the hospital – and told the public that convinced the province has sufficient capacity.
Quebec, which had 6101 cases recorded – at least in this country – promised to release models on Tuesday.
On Friday, after testing more than 290,000 people, Canada has at least 11 747 cases and 152 deaths coronavirus.
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